For anyone who has been tracking the trajectory of stablecoins over the past several years, the National Credit Union Administration's recent move toward licensing stablecoin issuers is anything but routine.

It is, in fact, one of the clearest signals yet that the U.S. government and the broader banking industry are converging on a remarkable consensus: Stablecoins are not a passing fad, and the question is no longer whether to regulate them, but how best to bring them inside the regulatory perimeter.

The NCUA's proposed rule, released Feb. 11, would not permit credit unions to issue stablecoins directly. Instead, it would require any stablecoin activity to occur through an NCUA-licensed subsidiary — a permitted payment stablecoin issuer.

The proposal establishes governance standards, mandates background checks for key executives, and imposes capital, reserve, anti-money laundering, cybersecurity and operational resilience requirements. Stablecoins issued under this framework would be required to maintain one-to-one reserve backing and provide clear redemption rights to holders.

In isolation, this is a sensible, even unremarkable, regulatory design. What makes it noteworthy is the context in which it arrives.

The 2025 McKinsey Global Payments Report identified the "accelerated adoption of stablecoins and tokenized money" as one of three structural forces that "could drastically change how money moves between individuals, businesses, and intermediaries."

The NCUA's action fits squarely within that frame.

A Shifting Regulatory Landscape

Consider where stablecoins stood just a few years ago. For most of the past decade, these digital assets — tokens pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar — were regarded by the traditional financial establishment as instruments belonging exclusively to the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Banks viewed them as operationally opaque. Regulators worried they could be destabilizing. Highly publicized collapses of poorly designed stablecoins reinforced that skepticism and gave cautious institutions every reason to keep their distance.

That posture has changed dramatically. In 2025, the passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins, or Genius, Act established the first federal framework for payment stablecoins.

Under the new law, stablecoins are no longer classified as federal securities or commodities, removing them from the jurisdiction of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and placing oversight with the OCC.

The Genius Act requires issuers, including banks, to back their stablecoins one-for-one with high-quality liquid assets such as U.S. currency, insured bank deposits or short-term Treasury securities. It is a framework that prizes stability, transparency and prudential safeguards — precisely the values that banking regulators have always championed.

The NCUA's proposed rule is a direct implementation of the authority granted by the Genius Act, tailored to the credit union sector.

But the NCUA is not acting alone. The OCC has assumed its role as the primary federal regulator for banks, thrifts and nonbank issuers. The Federal Reserve has published research acknowledging both the challenges and opportunities that stablecoins present for the banking system.

And internationally, the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation is entering full implementation, while regulators in Singapore, Hong Kong and the Gulf States are strengthening reserve structures and audit frameworks for stablecoin issuers.

This is not a single agency making a tentative gesture. It is a coordinated, multijurisdictional regulatory architecture taking shape in real time.

The Banking Industry Is Paying Attention

If regulators are building the framework, the banking industry is beginning to walk through the door. The shift is cautious but unmistakable. As International Banker recently documented, most large banks have not yet issued public, freely circulating stablecoins.[1] Instead, they are experimenting with permissioned tokens for interbank settlement, liquidity management, cross-border corporate payments and collateral movement.

These tokens often resemble stablecoins in functionality but are issued only to approved counterparties and settled within controlled networks. This conservative approach reflects genuine engagement with the underlying technology rather than outright rejection of it.

Major payment networks are moving more aggressively. In December, Visa announced the launch of stablecoin settlements in the U.S. using Circle's USDC stablecoin. Stripe has integrated USDC into its payment infrastructure, enabling merchants to accept stablecoin-based cross-border payments. PayPal now accepts a range of digital assets as forms of payment. Coinbase has deployed a stablecoin-linked debit card.

These are not speculative pilot programs. They are production-grade integrations by some of the most recognized names in global payments, and they send an unmistakable signal to merchants and consumers alike.

As FinTech Futures reported in February, stablecoins are still waiting for their "Transport for London moment" — the point at which a widely trusted institution demonstrates their potential for everyday use — but the foundation is being laid rapidly.

The numbers reinforce the narrative. McKinsey's data confirms that stablecoin issuance has doubled since early 2024, and the circulating supply now exceeds $300 billion. Market projections forecast supply levels rising to $2 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade.[2]

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated publicly that the stablecoin market "could grow tenfold" as a result of the Genius Act.[3] And widely circulated data projects that roughly 90% of fiat-backed stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar, meaning that U.S. regulatory and industry decisions will have an outsize effect on the global trajectory of this asset class.

Why This Moment Matters

The confluence of these developments points to something more significant than incremental progress. Federal legislation, agency-level rulemaking across multiple regulators and institutional adoption by major payment networks suggest that the financial system is crossing a threshold.

For banks, the calculus is becoming clearer. The Federal Reserve itself has recommended that institutions, particularly those with "the scale, technological capacity, and regulatory expertise" to manage stablecoin participation, move proactively to offset potential disintermediation and develop new revenue streams.

The alternative would be standing still while crypto-native firms capture payment flows, reduce fee income and bypass correspondent banking networks. Such passivity carries its own risks. Standard Chartered has warned that U.S.-dollar stablecoins could trigger $500 billion in deposits to exit U.S. banks by the end of 2028, with regional banks most exposed.[4]

For credit unions, the NCUA's proposed rule creates a concrete and encouraging pathway. It allows these institutions to participate in digital asset payment infrastructure through well-defined, supervised structures, without compromising the safety of the Share Insurance Fund.

It is a model of how regulators can enable innovation while maintaining the governance and risk management expectations that the financial system depends on.

And for the broader policy conversation, the trend is increasingly difficult to deny. Business-to-business stablecoin payments have surged. McKinsey reports that the number of B2B stablecoin payments rose 733% in the past year, accounting for approximately $226 billion in global stablecoin payment volume.[5] End-user payment applications are nascent but growing.

The integration of stablecoins into established payment rails — from Visa and Stripe to emerging platforms serving freelancers in Latin America and Africa — is expanding the addressable market well beyond the crypto-native community.

Looking Ahead

None of this means the compliance path forward is free of obstacles. Global regulatory standardization remains elusive, and the tension between traditional financial institutions and crypto-native firms over control of digital payments infrastructure is real and ongoing.

Banks may worry, legitimately, about deposit erosion. Crypto firms could argue, also legitimately, that stablecoins enhance efficiency and inclusion. The resolution of this tension will shape the competitive landscape of financial services for years to come.

But the direction is clear. When a historically conservative federal agency like the NCUA proposes a detailed licensing framework for stablecoin activity, it confirms that the conversation has moved well past "whether" and firmly into "how." The Genius Act provides the legislative foundation. The OCC, the Fed and now the NCUA are building the regulatory infrastructure.

The major payment networks are deploying the technology. And the data — from market capitalization to transaction volumes to institutional commitments — all point in the same direction.

Stablecoins have arrived in the regulated financial system. The institutions that recognize this early, and position themselves accordingly, will be the ones best equipped to serve their customers, manage their risks and compete effectively in a payments landscape that is being fundamentally reshaped.

Endnotes

[1] International Banker, "Is the Banking Sector Now Warming to Stablecoins?" (2026).

[2] Market analyst projections, as reported in International Banker, "Is the Banking Sector Now Warming to Stablecoins?" (2026) (citing DeFi Llama data).

[3] Remarks of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as reported in FinTech Futures, "Is 2026 a Make-or-Break Year for Stablecoins in Payments?" (Feb. 2026).

[4] Standard Chartered forecast, as reported in International Banker, "Is the Banking Sector Now Warming to Stablecoins?" (2026).

[5] McKinsey & Company, The 2025 McKinsey Global Payments Report (Sept. 2025).

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